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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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