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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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