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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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