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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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