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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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