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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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