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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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