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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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