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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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