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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
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Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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