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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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