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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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