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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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