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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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