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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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