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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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