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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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