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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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