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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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