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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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