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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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