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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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