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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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