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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The recent Coronavirus outbreak in China has led to a global health emergency by World Health Organization and it is yet to be seen how long the ph ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may wel ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SEES FREIGHT MARKETS IN A COMPLETE STATE OF COLLAPSE AS DEMAND GETS PARALYZED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - ALLIED
With China and the world still trying to contain the effects and come to terms with the Wuhan novel coronavirus outbreak, the shipping industry see ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2019 - BANCHERO COSTA
In a worrying development, global steel production slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the final 3 months of 2019, total cru ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
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