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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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