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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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