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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
COAL IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE - MINING REVIEW
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global wa ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
CIL PRODUCTION TO NOT EXCEED 640 MILLION TON IN FY20: OFFICIAL - PTI
Hit by disruptions due to a prolonged monsoon, mining major Coal India Ltd’s production in the current fiscal will not exceed 640 million ton ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
WHO PAYS FOR IMO 2020? - FREIGHT WAVES
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented its low-sulfur fuel mandate on January 1, 2020. Full enforcement be ...
Friday, 31 January 20
EIA EXPECTS U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES TO SOON SURPASS NUCLEAR AND COAL
In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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