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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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