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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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