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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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