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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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