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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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