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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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