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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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