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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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