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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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