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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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