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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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