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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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