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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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