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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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