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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
...
Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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