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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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