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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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