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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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