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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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