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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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