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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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