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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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