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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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