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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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