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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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