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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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