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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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